EP 121: 2024 Market Forecast: Deep Dive Into a Potential Recession
In this episode of the Real Estate Investor MBA podcast, hosted by Tejas Gosai, we take a deep dive into the potential of a recession in 2024 with special guest Paul Moore. As economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and the housing market show signs of volatility, it's crucial to explore this topic and gain valuable insights from experienced professionals.
During the conversation, Paul Moore provides historical context and offers a detailed analysis of these economic indicators, highlighting their significance in predicting a potential recession in 2024. He emphasizes the importance of investing in durable asset types and the value of professional management in navigating uncertain times.
One key strategy discussed is preferred equity, which acts as a middle ground between traditional debt and common equity investments. This approach offers reduced risks while maintaining the potential for high rewards. Paul Moore shares valuable advice on how to leverage this strategy effectively.
Furthermore, the discussion sheds light on the risks associated with multifamily syndication and the dangers of over-leverage in a declining market. By exploring these topics, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the potential pitfalls to avoid in their investment journey.
To stay informed and ahead of the curve in the real estate investment world, it is vital to listen to this episode. Don't miss out on the valuable insights shared by Tejas Gosai and guest Paul Moore. Share the episode with fellow investors and make sure to subscribe to the Real Estate Investor podcast for more thought-provoking discussions.
💥 Remember, this is your MBA. Have a notepad handy, and get ready to take some 📝 notes!
Key Points from This Episode:
Understanding the current economic situation
Potential impact of a recession on real estate investments
Economic indicators, historical trends, and future projections
Inflation and interest rates
Strategies to limit risks in real estate investments
Preferred equity opportunities
Importance of staying informed and adapting to economic shifts
Multifamily syndicators and their investment strategies
Asymmetric opportunities and lower perceived risk in preferred equity
Problems with aggressive underwriting and high leverage in real estate investments
Tweetables:
"I co-hosted a podcast as well. And I'm surprised you'd have me on here after knowing that the title was “How to Lose Money”. And, it was actually a wealth-building podcast where we talked to successful people about their pain, losses, agony, and defeats on the way to success. And, you know, we found that trials can either make you bitter or make you better. And these people chose to be better through it. And almost every one of our 238 guests said they were glad it happened, though at the time it felt like they wanted to die." - Paul Moore
"We've got baby boomers. Baby boomers are the smallest number of renters. And when we talk about a 2 million unit housing shortage, I'm talking about single-family owned single-family rentals. You know, mobile homes, and multifamily are a big one. Baby boomers are living longer. They are actually the smallest but the fastest-growing group of renters. And statistics say when they rent, they'll never buy again." - Paul Moore
"Does the economy even matter when making investments? Warren Buffett says no. Warren Charlie said they have never had a conversation. They've known each other since 1959. They've been investing together since the mid-60s. They've never had a conversation about buying or selling a company or a stock based on the economy." - Paul Moore
Connect with Paul Moore
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About Paul Moore
Paul Moore is the Founder and Managing Partner of Wellings Capital. After graduating with an engineering degree and then an MBA from Ohio State, Paul entered the management development track at Ford Motor Company in Detroit. After five years, he departed to start a staffing company with a partner. They scaled and sold the company to a publicly traded firm five years later. After a brief “retirement” in his early 30s, Paul began investing in real estate in 1999 to protect and grow his own wealth.
He completed over 85 real estate investments and exits, appeared on HGTV’s House Hunters, rehabbed and managed dozens of rental properties, and developed a subdivision. After completing three successful real estate developments, including assisting with the development of a Hyatt hotel and a very successful multifamily project, Paul narrowed his focus on commercial real estate in 2011. Paul is married with four children and lives in Central Virginia.
Paul was a finalist for Ernst & Young’s Michigan Entrepreneur of the Year two years straight (1996 & 1997). Contributor to BiggerPockets and Fox Business. Paul is the author of The Perfect Investment: Create Enduring Wealth from the Historic Shift to Multifamily Housing and Storing Up Profits: Capitalize on America's Obsession with Stuff by Investing in Self-Storage. Paul also co-hosted a wealth-building podcast called How to Lose Money and he’s been a featured guest on 250+ other podcasts including the BiggerPockets Podcast, The Real Estate Guys, and Entrepreneur on Fire.
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